My main testimony [was] on the traffic study. I will only highlight some of my concerns.

First, I am not a traffic engineer.

I am a retired engineer. I performed, purchased and reviewed many management and technical studies over my career. I am confining my comments to a review of the proponent’s traffic study from what I hope would be a county approving authority’s perspective.

I reviewed the Traffic Study submitted with the proposal for the school. Until mid-December, only a 500 student study was available, so I used it. I did see the 300 student study in mid-December (which is apparently an older Jan 2005 version). Its main difference is the downsizing of each school-related traffic figure by multiplying the equivalent number for 500 students by 0.6 (300/500). I do not challenge either study’s accuracy in recording data or in making calculations. They appear to have done what they were contracted to do.

The study is an assessment of traffic at selected intersections only, as agreed by the county staff. It did not examine the overall safety of traffic along the several corridors leading to the school, nor did it look at all affected intersections. Whitaker Mill Road is a very poorly maintained, narrow, twisting country road with blind turns, blind hills, and blind intersections and no shoulders. No mention was made of the current hazard of exiting from Millwood Drive or Auburn Court onto Whitaker Mill Road (WMR), nor of any additional hazard from the added school traffic. I live on Millwood. It is a very limited sight distance to the right, making it hazardous for exiting left onto WMR. Auburn is limited sight in both directions. Other points of entry onto WMR are similarly already hazardous. They need to be assessed in determining the impact of the school.

· Only single samples of background traffic were taken at the selected intersections.

As an example, in the 500 student study, sampling was done on different days at the site and at Old Joppa RD at WMR. 22 more cars (25%) arrived at the stop sign at Old Joppa Rd than left the site going in that direction. Only three houses are between. (The older 300 study did not sample at the site and just used the Old Joppa Road numbers. This eliminated the apparent error, but the question of what is the safe-sided estimate of background traffic remains. However, some small amount of traffic observed entering and leaving the site is ignored in the older 300 student study.)

· The trip generation rates used in the proponent’s traffic study

(Their reference source used had few data points and indicated a great deal of variability in the rates for city vs rural, high vs middle school and private vs public, bussing, school population and all the combinations of these factors.)

Their morning arrival trip generation rate of 0.48 produced 241 cars for 500 students; 145 cars for 300 students. This can be visualized as 100% carpooling with an average of 2.08 students per car. Very High.

I looked at two other carpooling figures, based on Mr Gast’s testimony that between 17% to 25% of the students carpool at Baltimore Lutheran School. This seems reasonable for rural Harford County, too.

25% @ 3 students per car yields 173% of their study figure: 417 cars for 500 students (vs 241); 250 cars for 300 students (vs their 145).

17% @ 2 students per car yields 190% of their study figure : 458 cars for 500 students; 274 cars for 300 students.

For both of my alternative carpooling rates, school car traffic for 300 students exceeds their Traffic Study’s car traffic for 500 students, by 4% and 14%, respectively. Therefore, the more likely impact of 300 students on traffic exceeds the study’s estimates for 500 students. The impact for 500 students will be 73% more than their study. This school traffic inflation applies to all roads and all intersections. It will likely be at least 173% of projections in their study.

· Another sensitivity factor not surfaced: Per Mr Gast’s testimony

for BLS, near the site, the school traffic will likely be concentrated into about 40 minutes, not spread over an hour, increasing school traffic density by another 50% per minute. This is average density. School traffic will concentrate even more at two peaks before the 8:00 am and 8:15 am start times.

I have calculated morning traffic loads for most intersections for 500 and 300 students using my carpooling rates and the study’s background traffic. Representative findings follow:

At the school site at morning arrival, the Traffic Study for 500 students predicts 600 cars approaching the intersection in the hour from the three directions, or 10 cars per minute. For 300 students at 17% carpooling, I calculate 634 cars approaching over 40 minutes, or an average of 16 cars per minute----- a 60% greater flow rate for 300 students than their projected for 500 students. For 500 students, the rate at 17% carpooling is 25 cars per min over 40 minutes. Obviously, the traffic is highly sensitive to assumptions on carpooling and concentration over time. At these rates, school related traffic will clearly dominate and disrupt the through traffic. The roundabout just facilitates the flow of school traffic to the private driveway at the expense of through traffic.

Similar impacts occur at all the other intersections.

For 300 students, I calculate that morning traffic at the intersection of Old Joppa Road and Whitaker Mill Road will increase by 71% to 78% over future background traffic, or 100% to 108% over the actual traffic measured in the morning hour last year.

Traffic overload from Old Joppa exiting onto Business Rte 1 will detour back thru the developments on Summit Drive, Woodridge and Terry Way to WMR to escape to Rte 1, creating a hazard in the developments and further exacerbating traffic at Rte 1.

Morning traffic turning left from Business Rte 1 to Old Joppa Road will also be 73% to 90% more than in their study and also likely concentrated into about 40 minutes of the hour. I anticipate that the turn lane will fill and the overflow will continue down Business Rte 1 to Rte 147 or Rte 1 to enter WMR.

· A major concern is that the Whitaker Mill Road intersection with

Ring Factory Road –the one-lane bridge--- was not studied at all, with county staff agreement. This is wrong. This is not a continuous path, but an intersection. People who doubted that have had to back up on the bridge.

The bridge is a dangerous intersection, severely downhill in one direction, both downhill and twisting in the other, blind in both directions. With no traffic control signs there, the rules of engagement vary each time depending on your opponent. It takes 12 seconds to cross before an opposing car can start back. Our elementary school bus is turning around in front of the bridge during the morning rush. Bad weather makes this intersection high risk today. Extrapolating data from the proposed school site, I calculate crossings required at 5 to 6 per minute for 300 students. Up to 8 crossings per minute required for 500 students. If more than 25% of school traffic goes this way (another sensitivity factor not examined), it will be worse. This bridge and the access roads are not designed for this volume. This intersection needs study before approval.

· Another missed intersection is Rte 147 at Connolly Road.

20% of school traffic arrives this way (mostly from Forest Hill) to cross Rte 1 at the light, rather than trying to turn left from Rt 1 onto WMR (no turn lane or turn signal). Rte 147 is busy during rush hours. Further, it is single lane in each direction. A left from Rte 147-south onto Connolly will cause backup. Additional traffic overflow from Rte 1 Business at Old Joppa will show up here. This intersection should be studied before approval.

My testimony was meant to demonstrate reasonable concern with the proponent’s Traffic Study, not to offer a comprehensive, competing study. I believe that the county staff is there to look out for the safety and welfare of residents. I believe that it is their duty to perform a study, or to require and carefully review a study of traffic safety for all the Whitaker Mill affected area. It must include all the intersections I have cited, using realistic safe-sided school traffic estimates, safe-sided estimates of background traffic, sensitivity to assumptions and a careful evaluation of all the road conditions. This was not done as part of their review and recommendation process. Waiting for the DAC is not rational; by then we are just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.